10-5 to 13-5, The Journey Starts Tomorrow. Week 6 College Football Picks.

The train keeps rolling.  If you’ve been tailing these picks, congratulations on the money you’ve won.  If I had the self restraint to not bet the NFL, I would be in that boat with you.  So as this train keeps going, that’s my goal of the week.  No NFL betting.  It’s a sham.

As for college football though, I like my odds.

So here we go, three locks.

Oklahoma State -9.5 Vs. Texas Tech.

I rode the Cowboys to victory last week, and I’ll do the same this week.  That offense is the second best in the conference, and while the defense needs some work, it hasn’t been atrocious.  Texas Tech’s offense on the other hand has left a lot to be desired.  Without Alan Bowman I like the Cowboys significantly.  The future has some color to it in Lubbock with Matt Wells, but I don’t think the sun starts to shine until at least next year.

Note: I got this game at 8.5, but I still LOVE the bet as long as you get a number under 10.  Depending on what book you use you may get it at 9.5 or you may have to buy a half point.

Texas -10.5 Vs. West Virginia

BIG BET OF THE WEEK:

Texas defense hasn’t been what I thought it would be, but West Virginia’s offense has been a few molecules short of anemic.  People make too big of a deal about West Virginia’s home field advantage which I don’t expect to be a factor but I do worry about UT looking ahead to the Red River Shootout particularly in the second half.  That being said, I think Texas controls the ball and scores more or less at will in the first half.

Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall hasn’t looked like a guy who reportedly challenged Kyler Murray for the starting spot last year, but he hasn’t been terrible.  He also hasn’t played a defense as loaded as Texas’.  Say what you will about the Longhorns performance against LSU, but as the season comes more and more into focus that should worry those on Texas side of things less and less.  I would focus more on what they did to the Oklahoma State passing offense two weeks ago.  All but shutting down Spencer Sanders and my predicted Biletnikoff winner Tylan Wallace, and holding arguably the best back in the conference Chuba Hubbard to a measly 3.3 ypc.  West Virginia’s offense has held up the passing rate of previous years under Dana Holgerson as Austin Kendall is throwing the ball 36 times a game.  Yet he’s only averaging a meager 6.04 yards per attempt, putting him firmly on the throne of 109th in the country.  I expect the loaded UT secondary to feast on the WVU dink and dunk game.

I would recommend if you don’t feel comfortable putting plural units on this game to sell a point or two to get joose positive.  The UT offense is a real threat to blow people out this year for seemingly the first time in years and I don’t see WVU making this competitive.  Even if the Longhorns are looking through the Mountaineers and at the Sooners, I think they could sleep walk to a 2 touchdown victory in Morgantown.  Mark it Down.

Ohio State -20 Vs. Michigan State.

Not a whole lot to break down here.  Ohio State has looked like the best team in football this year, while Michigan State may be the most frustrating.  Michigan State is the LSU teams of old, sans the freak athletes.  Ohio State may just be the Oklahoma of new, but with freak athletes on defense.  It’s too early to tell just how good Ohio State is, but offense like what Michigan State has trotted out this year simply don’t get moving overnight, and unfortunately for Sparty and Co, this defense ain’t Indiana.  Michigan State has a stout defense which may hold back the flood gates for a quarter or two, but it’s a tale as old as time.  Defenses without offenses to compliment them and let them recover falter as the game goes on.  Don’t be surprised if Ohio State is covering by half time.  Ohio State is averaging 52 points per game at this point so while it’s reasonable to assume Mark Dantonio’s defense slows the Buckeyes down a tad, I realistically think if the Buckeys can hit the mid-30’s on the scoreboard they cover.

And I expect them to do so.  Justin Fields might just be the Heisman front runner after Saturday.


Alright,

So three favorites to cover, how original.  That’s what I like though, and the record speaks for itself.

Here’s a ‘dog I like to cover straight up though:

Baylor over Kansas State.

And here’s some other bets I like:

Texas/WVU: Under 61

Maryland -12.5 vs Rutgers

USF -11 vs. UCONN.