Going into week 1, Vegas had a grand total of 0 data available to predict week 1 lines. What that means to you is, IF you’ve got big brain cells like myself, then you can stand to make a little money.
Unfortunately, everyone missed out on the week 1 picks because I didn’t post any.
Fortunately, I can’t stand to NOT help my compatriots going into this week. Also fortunately, it’s only week 2 and on top of that, we’re just kinda now dipping our toes into conference play.
Translation: Vegas ain’t got shit for data on each team, and certainly doesn’t have meaningful data like common opponents, similar attributes yada yada yada this isn’t a modeling seminar. What’s important is this: At this juncture, you, me, or any other shmo on the street knows as much as Vegas does in the very least. IF, you have qualitative data (Call it the eye-test) then presumably, you’re one step ahead of that stat nerd in the back of the Bellagio coding with cheeto fingers. IF, like I said before, you’re a man made of big brain cells. Not to say that I am…but the action speaks for itself.
Want some picks? Here they are, take ’em or leave ’em. But know this.
The more football that is played, the harder it is to beat ole’ Saul the tax-collector out there in the desert. Time is of the essence for the big-boy gains.
Lock 1: Washington -14 vs. Cal.
I’ve written before about the Pac-12, and despite Oregon walked into the preseason rankings with the highest ranking in the conference the Huskies in Seattle are the standard bearer for the conference. That’s based on their stout defense, what I’ve seen from their offense the past few years and most importantly the fact that they finally have a quarterback in Jacob Eason capable of stretching the field. I was unsure about Eason going into the season, as anyone should with the minimal experience he’s had, but his measurables are off the chart. He’s big, with a big arm, and a blue-chip recruit. Sure, those guys have failed before…but the guy started as a freshman at Georgia and only left because a guy name Jake Fromm played pretty well while Eason nursed an injury. Enough signs pointed in the right direction for me to believe Eason was a player. Last week showed it.
Cal last week? Yikes. Stumbled a bit vs. UC Davis.
Cal last year? Yikes….
Ummm…nothing in my brain leads me to believe this one will be particularly close, so please for the love of God hammer the Huskies.
Lock 2: North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) OVER 48.5
Not really anything crazy about this bet, I just think that line is low for two teams that looked decent on offense last time they played. Miami ultimately lost to Florida but their Freshman QB looked poised back there, which, guess what, will mean a lot more than 20 points against the UNC defense that is definitively not the University of Florida’s. The other freshman QB in this game, UNC’s Sam Howell will probably get beat up a bit this week. Miami’s got a solid defense in place. The kid just won a huge rivalry game though and is coming off a high of “holy shit, I can actually do this” moments. Confidence is key in young gun slingers. Howell’s got it. Someone’s going to put up 30 in this game, and I like the other team to put up 19. Don’t ask me which one is which though.
Lock 3: Maryland vs. Syracuse OVER 56.
Please, please, please HAMMER this one. 56 is such an incredibly low number for two spread out gun and shoot teams. Head Coaches Dino Babers and Mike Locksley are both in the top-10 (Maybe 5) offensive minds in college football, it’s a no brainer in my mind that they collectively throw up 56.
*NOT A LOCK…BUT ANOTHER BET I REALLY LIKE*
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Over 53.5