UPDATED 09/20: College Football Picks of the Week: Week 4

Overall Record: 28-27

Unit count: +5

This record includes College and NFL, and all bets including parlays and props.  I had a great week 2, week 3 I lost some ground and was bailed out by Alabama.  Still up on the season by a good amount, let’s see where we can win some money in Week 4.  All odds are current, not what it opened at.

Notre Dame -7.5/Wake Forest-My Bet: Notre Dame -6 (-140)@ 1.5 units

I teased this down 1.5 points because frankly Wake Forest scares me.  I think Notre Dame ends up grinding them down and winning, but Wake should put up some points.

Washington State/USC -3.5-My Bet: Washington State +2.5 (+128) @ .75 Units.

Frankly, I think betting on the Wazzu moneyline here is a good play but I teased a point to stay both within a field goal victory margin and joose positive.  Washington State’s going to put up some points and I’m not sure USC can keep up with them.  If USC is going to win this game, it’s going to be a close one.

Wisconsin -3/Iowa-My Bet: Wisconsin -3.5 (-110) @1 unit.

I got on this one a day too early, as I lost a half a point already in line movements.  Oh well.  I expect Wisconsin to come out pissed off and manhandle Iowa.  Whenever two teams play identical types of football, the outcomes of the game are more straightforward.  Wisconsin is bigger and stronger than the Hawkeyes, and I expect a relatively easy cover.

Michigan State -4.5/Indiana-My Bet: Michigan State -4.5 (-110) @ 1.25 units.

Not a whole lot to say here.  Michigan State is a better team, and I think they keep the Indiana offense relatively quiet. If Michigan State can get to around 27 points or so, it’ll be an easy cover.

Lock(s) of the Week: Ohio State -35/Tulane. North Texas -15 (+115)/Liberty

I don’t see how Tulane keeps this even relatively close.  This could be a shutout to the tune of somewhere around 56-0 or so.  If the Buckeyes can get to 42 I think they cover.  Ohio State put up 40 on a good TCU defense last week in a quasi-road game.  I think they throw up upward of 60 with scumbag Urban back on the sideline.

Seth Litrell has UNT looking like the cream of the crop of G5 teams at the moment.  I don’t think anyone even knows where Liberty is. Load up on this one.  The line at the moment is -13.  I feel confident enough in them to  go joose positive for the price of a safety.

Hail Mary Parlay of the week: @1 Unit.

 Missouri – Georgia. Spread Georgia -14 -116
Liberty – North Texas. Spread North Texas -13 -110
Purdue – Boston College. Spread Purdue +4.5 +118
I think the first two cover relatively simply.  Purdue is a better team than their record, I could see them winning this game but I really like them at +4.5 if I’m going joose positive to  spice up the multiplier.
Track em, stack em, let’s see what happens


Week 3 Bonus Bets Placed:

Georgia -14/Mizzou-My Bet: UGA -14 (-110) @2 Units

I don’t love Georgia’s offense, but I like ’em enough for them to cover this.  UGA’s as a team is the soft 7 at a bar that happens to have a giant rack.  They aren’t perfect, but 95% of the time they’ll do the trick.  What the dawgs lack in offense will only show against teams that force them to throw the ball.  I think Jake Fromm is a game manager at best, but that’s all he needs to do to beat the Tigers of Columbia by more than 2 TD’s.  The Dawg defense will do the trick.  I expect Drew Lock’s life to be a living hell on Saturday, and Georgia to out athlete the Tigers D-Line for a huge day for Swift at HB.

West Virginia -15.5/Kansas State-My bet: WVU -15.5 @1 Unit.

I’m just going to put this quickly.  The K-State defense is probably going to play pretty well.  WVU however is going to get theirs.  The K-State offense is eutrophic at this point.  If WVU gets to 35 I’m pretty confident this is a dub.